Charting Migration of the Nation

Emau Sanchez and Alexandra Veremeychik

Montgomery College

Fundamentals of Scientific Research

The Data

  • American Community Survey (ACS)
    • The ongoing, annual survey of the social, economic, housing, and demographic characteristics of the nation’s population.
    • Surveys 3.5 million addresses and informs over $675 billion of Federal government spending each year

      • State-to-State Migration Flows

      • Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS)

State-to-State Migration Flows

  • Excel files of estimates
  • How many people moved from one state to another?
    • Which state do they currently live in?
    • Did they live in a different location the previous year?
      • Which state was their previous dwelling located in?
  • The state-to-state migration flows are created from tabulations of the state of current residence crossed by state of residence 1 year ago

Considered driving variables of migration

- Legislation ( taxation )  

 - Natural Disasters

- Markets (Housing) ( Job )

What is the probability of moving from Maryland to Alaska?

Are you more likely to move from Alaska to Maryland?

Q = \begin{pmatrix} Q_{11} & Q_{12} & \cdots & Q_{1n} \\ Q_{21} & Q_{22} & \cdots & Q_{2n} \\ \vdots & \vdots & \ddots & \vdots \\ Q_{n1} & Q_{n2} & \cdots & Q_{nn} \end{pmatrix}

Migration Probability Matrix

  • Where            is the probability of moving from state     to state
  • Sum of the rows is equal to 1
  • Diagonal represents probability of remaining in the state
Q_{i,j}
i
j

Our Migration Model Workflow

1. Load and clean annual migration and population data.

 

2. Compute outflow rates (how many leave each state per year out of the total population of the state).


3. Build the conditional move matrix P.

 

4. Construct the full matrix Q:

 

Q_{ij} = \bar{p}_{\text{out},i} \cdot P_{ij}, \quad Q_{ii} = 1 - \bar{p}_{\text{out},i}

Another application of the Migration Probability Matrix

Markov Chain

About Alaska

  • Given 1,000 Alaskan residents, how many will move out of the state?
    • Stayed: approximately 913 people
    • Moved: approximately 87 people
  • Where are they going?

Dataset Weaknesses

"The strength of census data is that it covers the entire population, and is thus suitable for computing migration rates. Yet a severe disadvantage is the low level of spatial detail and reliance on official classifications of regions or what constitutes urban or rural."

- Martina Kirchberger,
"Measuring internal migration"

Why do they move?

Who is moving between states?

Trends to Explore

State Net Migration Trend Contributing Factors

California Out-migration High cost of living, high taxes (increasing over the past 20 years), and natural disasters (wildfires & droughts)
Texas In-migration High job opportunities, no state income tax, affordable housing
Florida In-migration Retiree destination, no state income tax, warm climate
Illinois Out-migration Economic challenges, high taxes, and job market stagnation
Louisiana Out-migration Natural disasters (Katrina 2005) and economic instability, slow economic growth

Further exploration - Individualistic State Tax Rate

Thank you for your time!

 

 

 

 

Questions? 

Citations and References

- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046221000740#sec7

- https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html

- https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2025/04/state-newcomers.html

- https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.25.3.173

- https://www-jstor-org.montgomerycollege.idm.oclc.org/stable/pdf/2722115.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A8a2884d2fced33961a7c7544d863ccc1&ab_segments=&initiator=&acceptTC=1

- https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/state-to-state-migration.html#:~:text=Nearly%207.9%20million%20people%20in,states%20within%20a%20given%20year

- https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/net-domestic-migration-which-states-are-gaining-and-losing-americans

- https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/population-estimates-international-migration.html#:~:text=The%20Midwest%20gained%20406%2C737%20people%20through%20net,net%20gain%20of%2052%2C741%20from%20natural%20increase.&text=Texas%20(85%2C267)%2C%20North%20Carolina%20(82%2C288)%20and%20South,domestic%20migration%20losses%20between%202023%20and%202024

- https://floridarevenue.com/DataPortal/Pages/TaxResearch.aspx

- https://comptroller.texas.gov/transparency/reports/cash-report/